Hot chips caught in a "price crash" have never broken out of Huaqiangbei.

01. The popular material that soared is now plunging again.

Since March, the spot market has seen a noticeable surge in interest for ST and TI components.

In the first week of March, a price increase notice from TI began circulating in the market. The notice indicated that prices for select TI products would rise effective April 1. Additional reports suggested the increase would apply to all direct-ship customers and Arrow accounts. Shortly thereafter, quotes for certain TI chips started climbing, with rumors even swirling of "a different price in the morning than in the afternoon." At the same time, ST also saw reports of extended lead times and rising quotes for some part numbers.

As prices climbed across a broad range of TI and ST product lines, specific models—such as STM32F405RGT6, TMS320F28335PGFA, STM8S003F3P6, and INA139NA/3K—emerged as the undisputed "top-tier" hot parts. During that period, these few models were practically all that anyone discussed, whether on third-party trading platforms, in industry chat groups, or among distributors.

But the frenzy arrived in a flash and faded just as quickly. Around mid-to-late March, barely half a month after the price hikes took hold, word began spreading that prices for these same parts were heading south—some even dropping significantly.

A popular theory circulating in the market is that these components never actually left Huaqiangbei — they were simply being passed back and forth among distributors, with no genuine end‑customer demand behind the trades.

Fast forward to now, and the market landscape for these parts looks completely different from early March. Many are now bluntly describing the situation as a "crash" or a "dump."

It’s worth noting, however, that while the four models followed a broadly similar overall trajectory, the specifics vary from case to case — they can't all be painted with the same brush.

STM32F405RGT6

The STM32F405RGT6 belongs to the foundational product line of the STM32F4 family, positioned between entry-level and advanced offerings. The STM32F405/415 series is designed for medical, industrial, and consumer applications.

The normal market price for the STM32F405RGT6 hovers around 12 RMB. Unusual price movement became evident during the week of March 9, with quotes surging to a peak of around 21 RMB—and even hitting 24 or 25 RMB in some reported cases. By March 19–20, however, prices had already begun to retreat. During the week of March 23, market quotes diverged sharply: some sources cited 14–16 RMB, while others maintained that actual transaction prices still held near 17 RMB, suggesting the lower figures were not entirely solid, as sporadic dip‑buying persisted in the market. Currently, the price stands around 15 RMB (untaxed).

TMS320F28335PGFA

The TMS320F28335PGFA is a C2000™ 32‑bit MCU from TI, featuring 150 MIPS, an FPU, 512 KB of flash memory, an EMIF, and a 12‑bit ADC. It is primarily used in motor drives, power systems, new energy applications, ADAS, and related fields.

There have been reports linking the 28335 to a certain type of drone, and this particular part saw the most dramatic price surge of the recent wave. At the end of last year, it was still trading around 32 RMB. By early March, it had climbed to 46–47 RMB, and during the week of March 10, quotes hit their peak, briefly reaching 120 RMB. Prices then began to retreat; during the week of March 23, market quotes were still largely in the 60–75 RMB range. Currently, the price stands between 55 and 60 RMB (untaxed).

STM8S003F3P6

The STM8S003F3P6 is a versatile, cost‑effective 8‑bit microcontroller featuring 8 KB of Flash program memory and integrated true data EEPROM. It is primarily used in small‑scale control systems for consumer electronics and home appliances.

The price trajectory of the STM8S003F3P6 differs somewhat from that of the previous two parts. Around the Chinese New Year holiday period, it was trading at roughly 1.2 RMB. Around March 10, market transactions (tax‑inclusive) reached 1.5 RMB, and subsequently climbed to just over 1.7 RMB—a relatively steady and modest movement overall. Currently, the price stands around 1.45 RMB (untaxed).

INA139NA/3K

The INA139NA/3K is a high‑side, unidirectional current shunt monitor from TI's INA139 series. Key applications include current shunt sensing (e.g., in automotive, communications, and computer systems), portable and battery‑backup systems, battery chargers, power management, and mobile phones.

Back in November of last year, the INA139NA/3K was priced at just $0.17 USD. By the week of March 10, distributor quotes had climbed to $0.50 USD (approximately 3.4 RMB). During that same period, rumors swirled in the market about "someone sweeping up inventory" and prices "doubling overnight," with additional speculation linking the part to drone‑related equipment. By the week of March 23, prices had retreated to around 1.4–1.6 RMB, and they currently remain near 1.45 RMB (untaxed).

Overall Takeaway

Looking at the broader picture, the March rally for these four parts shared a common trait: they shot up fast but couldn't hold their footing. The cycle from peak to pullback was remarkably short—a very different pattern from the slow, grinding advances seen in previous market runs.

02

Why Did This Happen?

How Should We Interpret It?

Judging by the price trajectories of these four parts, they all followed a broadly similar rhythm: first, a sudden spike in market interest; then, prices were rapidly bid up within a short window as chatter reached a fever pitch; next, as more sell‑side volume emerged, prices began to soften—with some models even attracting talk of "dumping"—before gradually drifting back down.

Among them, the TMS320F28335PGFA and INA139NA/3K are TI parts, while the STM32F405RGT6 and STM8S003F3P6 belong to ST. Although they differ in brand, application, and price elasticity, the common thread running through this cycle is unmistakable: sentiment ignited fast, prices shot up aggressively, but staying power was sorely lacking.

The two TI parts began heating up almost simultaneously during the first week of March. Layered on top was their perceived link to drone applications. The 28335 soared from 32 RMB all the way to 120 RMB, while the INA139 doubled from $0.17 USD to $0.50 USD—only for both to subsequently retreat. The two ST parts attracted comparatively less frenzy, but against a backdrop of extended lead‑time rumors at the time, the STM32F405RGT6 still jumped from 12 RMB to 21 RMB. The STM8S003F3P6 remained relatively steady overall but was nonetheless swept up in a small wave of irregular movement.

Around March 17, murmurs of "dumping" began to surface in the market. It was precisely at this stage that the previously hot parts started to transition from rapid ascents into either sideways trading or outright pullbacks, with market sentiment cooling noticeably. It's worth noting, however, that while prices have retreated, they still remain above their pre‑spike levels.

Why did this happen?

A key piece of context is that, in the wake of the last major chip shortage, the component distribution landscape has become far more complex than in the past. Starting last year, the market has even seen the frequent emergence of what one might call "unverified write‑ups"—rumor‑style narratives akin to those seen in financial markets. Information such as factory price hikes, extended lead times, or sudden booms in specific applications gets rapidly amplified in a very short window, feeding back into market sentiment and, in turn, influencing actual price movements.

After word of the "dumping" began circulating, we spoke with a number of market participants, and opinions turned out to be far from uniform.

Some believe the sell‑off stemmed from an overheated rally, but note that demand for certain chips still exists and the market is merely undergoing a healthy correction. They point out that ST's lead times, for instance, are still stretching, while market inventory levels are trending downward. One industry source also indicated that end‑customer demand is actually growing at a steady clip—it's just that the impact of price hikes and shortages has yet to fully filter down to the downstream side.

Others, however, see things differently. They argue that the market was propped up by hoarding and speculative stocking among peers, with relatively little actual pull‑through from end customers. In an environment of "price without volume," a collapse was inevitable.

Some added that the dramatic rise and subsequent fall of these specific parts also had a lot to do with a shift in market liquidity—as speculative capital rotated out of memory chips and into TI, ST, and other product lines.

Some seasoned industry hands point out that the first step in reading any market move is to distinguish between an "event‑driven spike" and a "structural trend" —that is, whether the move is fueled by sheer sentiment or underpinned by genuine demand.

An event‑driven spike is triggered by a one‑sided catalyst. Its hallmark is a short‑lived, explosive burst that calls for a "get in, get out" approach—think last year's tariff‑related frenzy or the Nexperia run‑up. A structural trend, on the other hand, arises from a confluence of supply‑and‑demand forces, tends to last much longer, and requires a longer‑term positioning strategy.

"This latest wave in hot TI and ST chips looks more like an event‑driven spike for now," one veteran added. "The underlying supply hadn't been fully exposed to begin with. Triggering factors—factory price hikes, extended lead times—whipped up market sentiment, and inventory that had been sitting in warehouses suddenly started trickling out in rapid succession. The moment prices ran up, that hidden supply was laid bare, and the dumping that followed was almost inevitable." He further noted that while this appears to be an event‑driven episode at present, with AI deployment accelerating and factory price increases alongside lead‑time extensions continuing to play out, the situation could yet morph into a genuine structural trend down the line.